WC2026 GTO

• Core: Pick the Elo favorite. Flip to underdog when teams are close (|pH-pA| < 0.15 && max < 0.66) — 3/3 hits, +12 pts
• Scorelines: gap ≤110 → 2-1, 111-230 → 3-1, >230 → 3-0. Upsets always 2-1
• Draw override: 1-1 when gap 130-145 and no team >52%. Thin edge (+6/3 events) but doesn't regress
• MD3 context: Biscotto (both safe on draw) → 1-1. Dead side (one eliminated) → back live team. Dead rubber (both through) → 1-1

Backtest (40 matches): 102 pts · 27/40 results (68%) · 7/40 exact (18%)

Key finding: Draw detection rules hurt results — every correct draw costs 1-2 win picks. The group-context layer is the right draw tool for MD3.